According to the General Administration of Customs, in the past three years, China’s automobile export scale has successively achieved milestone breakthroughs: from the export volume exceeding 2 million vehicles in 2021, surpassing South Korea to become the world’s third largest automobile exporting country; to the export volume breaking through 3 million vehicles in 2022, surpassing Germany to become the world’s second largest automobile exporting country; and then in 2023, the export volume exceeded 5.22 million vehicles, breaking Japan’s seven-year streak as the top automobile exporting country and becoming the world’s largest automobile exporting country. After reaching the top, China’s biggest enemy in automobile exports is actually itself. In 2024, can China’s automobile exports continue to break through and rise? 600 million or 650 million? China’s automobile exports in 2024 will reach new highs. In recent years, Chinese car companies have established a certain product and technological advantage overseas, and with continuous investment in channels, research and development, and product localization, industry experts believe that with a 56% high growth achieved in 2023, China’s automobile exports still have a good chance of inertia growth in 2024. As for the specific increase and export volume, different institutions and experts have their own opinions. Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that given that Chinese car products have already conquered foreign consumers with their product strength, it is expected that the export sales volume in 2024 will increase by another 600,000 vehicles on the basis of 2023. The Gaishi Automobile Research Institute is also optimistic about the prospects of China’s automobile exports in 2024, believing that the export volume this year is expected to exceed 6 million vehicles, with passenger car exports expected to reach 5.2 million vehicles. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, is even more aggressive. In his view, China’s automobile exports in 2024 should be able to achieve a 20% growth, reaching a scale of around 6.5 million units. “China’s automobile exports still appear to be in a sustained upward trend. Therefore, there is room for further improvement in 2024.”
Source: World Car Whether it is 5.5 million, 6 million, or 6.5 million, everyone agrees that China’s car exports will further increase in 2024 based on 2023. The future trend of China’s automobile exports is clear. From the international political perspective, our country’s relations with Russia, Europe, and Central and South America are generally stable, creating a good international environment for Chinese automobile exports. The relatively stable depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is also favorable for exports. Due to fierce domestic competition and the strength of electrification and intelligent products, car companies are increasingly turning their attention to new overseas markets, contributing to the continuous growth of automobile exports. At the current stage, the global automobile market is undergoing drastic changes, and Chinese automobiles are expected to gain tremendous growth opportunities in the global automobile industry. China’s share in the global market is expected to increase from the current 30% to 50% or even 60%. With automobile exports reaching new highs, these goals are not impossible to achieve. In 2023, China’s automobile exports surged to the world’s top position, with traditional fuel vehicles making significant contributions. With core powertrain technology, vehicle design and manufacturing quality, and intelligent connected technology innovation all accelerating, the competitiveness of Chinese fuel vehicles in the global market is gradually becoming apparent. According to the “2023 China Fuel Vehicle Industry User Satisfaction Evaluation” report by the China Quality Association, the satisfaction gap between Chinese brands and joint venture brands has narrowed to 1 point, and the product quality has reached the level of joint venture brands of the same level. In 2023, China’s fuel vehicle exports reached 3.707 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of nearly 53%, becoming a pillar force in automobile exports.
Meanwhile, in 2023, the export volume jumped to the first place in the world, and new energy vehicles became an important growth pole. Thanks to the “dual-wheel drive” of policy and market, China’s new energy vehicles started early and developed rapidly. Not only did they build a complete industrial chain supply chain system with strong innovation capabilities, fast technological iteration, and cost competitive advantages, but also they led the world in the innovation of electrification and intelligent networking technology and business model innovation. This can be seen from the sales performance of new energy vehicles. In 2023, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles have been the world’s number one for 9 consecutive years, with exports reaching 1.203 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 77.6%.
In 2024, which will be the focus of car exports, traditional fuel vehicles or new energy vehicles? According to Cui Dongshu, traditional fuel vehicles are still a major force in the growth of car exports. In comparison, the export of new energy vehicles has shown weak growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the export of traditional fuel vehicles remains relatively stable. Cui Dongshu also emphasized the need for Chinese car companies to meet the demand for small electric vehicles in Europe and Southeast Asia. Analyst Chen Weiwei believes that in 2024, both traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles will maintain a strong momentum in exports, with new energy vehicles expected to have a larger export growth. Despite potential additional tariffs in Europe, the strong demand for new energy vehicles in the local market creates an opportunity for Chinese exports. Additionally, extended and expanded subsidies and incentives in Southeast Asian countries are expected to contribute to stronger export growth of new energy vehicles.