15 cities are expected to become new “car cities” of the new energy and intelligent connected vehicle era. In 2023, the production of new energy vehicles in various places was successively announced, with Shenzhen taking the top spot nationwide for the first time, followed by Shanghai and Xi’an. In the past three years, the title of “the first city of new energy vehicles” has changed hands three times, with Xi’an and Shanghai taking the lead in 2021 and 2022, respectively. In addition to the top three, cities such as Hefei, Changsha, Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Liuzhou have also shown outstanding performance in the new energy vehicle industry. According to the development trends and goals of various places, in the coming years, more cities are expected to join the ranks of “million+” new energy vehicle production, becoming new “car cities” of the new energy and intelligent connected vehicle era. In the past 3 years, the competition for the champion of new energy vehicles has basically been between the three cities of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Xi’an. In 2021, Shanghai took a commanding lead with 632,000 vehicles, more than the total of Shenzhen and Xi’an. In 2022, Xi’an surged ahead with 1.0152 million vehicles, narrowly beating Shanghai, while Shenzhen had only 874,700 vehicles. In 2023, Shanghai’s production of new energy vehicles increased by 35% to 1.2868 million vehicles, while Xi’an’s production decreased to 983,800 vehicles. Shenzhen has not yet announced its specific production, but based on the growth rate of new energy vehicle production disclosed in the city’s 2023 national economic and social development statistics report, its annual production can be estimated to be around 1.786 million vehicles, exceeding second-place Shanghai by approximately 500,000 vehicles. Last year, the national production of new energy vehicles was 9.443 million vehicles, with the production of these three cities accounting for over 40% of the national total. In the past 3 years, Shenzhen’s new energy vehicle production growth rate has exceeded 100%. In contrast, Xi’an’s growth rate dropped from 3 times and 2 times in the previous two years to negative growth last year; Shanghai also recorded a growth rate of 160% in 2021, which dropped to 57% in 2022, and further dropped to 35% last year.
Wei Fulei, director of the Taxation, Trade, and Industrial Development Research Center of the China Institute of Comprehensive Development, analyzed in an interview with First Financial that Shenzhen’s advantage lies in having the most complete global new energy vehicle industry ecosystem. From the supply side, Shenzhen relies on the electronic information industry base to form a “three-electric” and “three-intelligent” industrial chain led by BYD, as well as supporting industries such as charging piles. Currently, Shenzhen has 24,000 new energy and digital energy companies, as well as BYD’s million-level new energy vehicle production bases in Pingshan District and the Shenzhen-Shanwei Cooperation Zone. From the demand side, Shenzhen is the earliest city to promote electrification in the public transportation sector, achieving comprehensive electrification of public buses, taxis, and ride-hailing vehicles. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles for passenger cars also ranks among the top cities in the country, reaching 67.9% by 2023. However, Wei Fulei also pointed out that Shenzhen’s traditional automobile industry foundation is weak, with BYD being the dominant vehicle manufacturer, which is a shortcoming that the city has to face in the early stages of developing the new energy vehicle industry. As for Shanghai, Wei Fulei analyzed in the interview that the city’s new energy vehicle industry mainly relies on the contribution of the Tesla Gigafactory, as well as complete industrial foundations supported by major vehicle manufacturers such as SAIC and thousands of component companies such as Bosch and Continental, and backed by the entire automotive industry ecosystem of the Yangtze River Delta. Currently, Shanghai is also leading in the layout of smart connected vehicles in China. “Shanghai’s automotive vehicle industry is mainly dominated by foreign and state-owned enterprises, with few private enterprises. In order to further stimulate innovation, private capital should be encouraged and supported to enter the new energy vehicle sector,” Wei Fulei said. In Wei Fulei’s view, Xi’an has formed a new energy vehicle industry system represented by new energy passenger cars, power batteries, and key components, with leading vehicle manufacturers such as BYD and Geely. The weak link is the lack of innovation and research and development capabilities, the weak automobile industry cluster, and the low rate of matching. The three strong are all continuing to exert force. According to the “Three-Year Action Plan for Accelerating the Construction of a ‘New Generation of World-Class Automobile City’ in Shenzhen”, by 2025, the output of new energy vehicles in Shenzhen will exceed 2 million, and the industrial output value of the automobile industry will reach 1 trillion yuan. Xi’an, which has not yet sat firmly in the top spot, has realized that it cannot overly rely on BYD, headquartered in Shenzhen. According to the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” of Shanghai, by 2025, Shanghai aims to significantly enhance the competitiveness of the new energy vehicle industry, with an annual output of new energy vehicles exceeding 1.2 million, and the industry scale exceeding 350 billion yuan, accounting for more than 35% of the city’s automobile manufacturing output value. The rise of the new energy vehicle industry can be regarded as one of the most eye-catching achievements in global industrial competition in China in the past decade. Last year, China’s new energy vehicle production and sales both surpassed 9 million, ranking first in the world for nine consecutive years, accounting for over 60% of the global market. Along with this, several domestic cities have “bet on” the new energy track, competing fiercely. In addition to the top three, cities such as Hefei, Changsha, Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Liuzhou have also emerged in the field of new energy vehicles, forming a trend of catching up with the top three. Hefei is the leader of the chasing army, with six vehicle production bases including JAC Motors, Volkswagen Anhui, NIO, BYD, and Changan, and more than 500 upstream and downstream enterprises. The city aims to produce 1.34 million vehicles in 2023, including 740,000 new energy vehicles, striving to surpass Xi’an, the third-place city, by approximately 240,000 vehicles. Hefei has explicitly stated its vision to become the “capital of new energy vehicles” and aims to exceed 1.2 million new energy vehicles in production by 2024. In recent years, Changsha’s new energy vehicle industry has quietly risen. In 2023, the city’s vehicle production reached 883,500 units, a 10.0% increase from the previous year. Of these, 726,900 were new energy vehicles, marking a 37.4% increase from the previous year. This means that for every 13 new energy vehicles produced in the country, one was produced in Changsha. The automotive industry is Guangzhou’s largest pillar industry. Last year, the city’s new energy vehicle production exceeded 650,000 units, a 108% increase. According to development goals, by 2025, Guangzhou’s total automobile production capacity will exceed 5 million units, with new energy vehicle production capacity exceeding 2 million units, ranking among the top three cities in the country. If this production capacity target is fully realized, Guangzhou’s new energy vehicle production will maintain a double-digit growth rate over the next two years. Driven by popular products such as the Kairui S and Wanjie, Chongqing’s new energy vehicle production has grown rapidly, reaching 500,300 units last year. In June last year, Chongqing proposed to develop three trillion-level industrial clusters, smart connected new energy vehicles ranked first. As an important automobile production base in China, Liuzhou completed 1.548 million and 1.544 million vehicle sales respectively last year, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 477,000 and 473,000. The city is striving to create an international new energy vehicle industry highland. According to statistics from First Financial, these five cities currently rank 4-8 in domestic new energy vehicle production. In addition to these five cities, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Qingdao, Changchun, Chengdu, Nanjing, Changzhou and other places also have ambitions for the new energy vehicle industry. Wei Fulei believes that leading enterprises and a solid industrial chain are the key to the competition for new energy vehicle industry among cities. Currently, cities such as Hefei, Changsha, Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Changzhou have a good development foundation. In the eyes of relevant experts, the competition in the new energy vehicle industry is not simply about production capacity, but a comprehensive competition in terms of the layout of the relevant industrial chain, innovation vitality, and sustainable development capabilities. The automobile industry has become the ideal choice for many places to develop their economy, and many places have proposed the goal of building “automobile cities.” “Automobile cities” do not have a strict definition and standard, but generally refer to cities with developed automobile industries, such as Detroit in the United States, Toyota in Japan, Stuttgart in Germany, and Turin in Italy. According to incomplete statistics from the First Financial Journalist, as of now, at least 25 cities in China have made the automotive industry a pillar industry, with the vast majority explicitly stating the goal of creating large-scale automotive industry clusters and building “car cities”.
According to the data calculated by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and major vehicle manufacturers, there are at least 15 cities in China with an annual production of over 300,000 vehicles, including: Guangzhou, Shanghai, Changchun, Chongqing, Liuzhou, Wuhan, Qingdao, Xi’an, Beijing, Shenzhen, Changsha, Chengdu, Hefei, Nanjing, and Changzhou. Amidst the stagnation or even regression of traditional fuel vehicles, these 15 cities have unanimously identified new energy vehicles as a key development direction, each formulating relevant industry plans and action plans. A review of relevant documents from various regions by a reporter from First Financial found that the top eight cities with clear targets for new energy vehicle production by 2025 are: Hefei with a capacity of over 3 million vehicles, Liuzhou with production and sales of over 3 million vehicles, Shenzhen with a production capacity of over 2 million vehicles, Guangzhou with a capacity of over 2 million vehicles, Xi’an with a production of over 1.5 million vehicles, Shanghai with a production of over 1.2 million vehicles, Chongqing with a production of 1 million vehicles, and Chengdu with a production of 1 million vehicles. Changchun has not announced a specific target for new energy vehicle production, but has proposed to achieve a total vehicle production of over 4 million vehicles by 2025 at the Changchun International Automobile City. Qingdao has planned for a total vehicle production of 1.6 million vehicles by 2026, including a production of 600,000 new energy vehicles. In addition, Wuhan, which accounts for over 70% of automobile production, plans for a total vehicle production of 1.5 million vehicles by 2025, including a production of 600,000 new energy vehicles. Nanjing aims to achieve a total sales volume of 1 million new energy passenger vehicles and a main business income of over 300 billion yuan by 2025. Beijing plans for a production of over 300,000 new energy vehicles by 2025. Changzhou aims to achieve a new energy vehicle parts industry scale of 500 billion yuan by 2025. Changsha has not announced a specific plan for the new energy vehicle industry, but based on the relevant plans of Hunan Province and the distribution of industries within the province, it can be estimated that the city’s new energy vehicle production should exceed 1 million vehicles by 2025. Based on the existing industrial foundation and future development goals, it is evident that these 15 cities are most likely to become new “automobile cities” in the era of new energy and intelligent connected vehicles. This year’s government work report explicitly states the need to “consolidate and expand the leading advantages in industries such as intelligent connected new energy vehicles,” and also mentions the need to “boost the consumption of intelligent connected new energy vehicles, electronic products, and other mass consumer goods,” which will provide policy support for the construction of “automobile cities” in various regions.