Li Xiang’s Weibo has not been updated for 5 days. The day after the release of the Ideal MEGA, Li Xiang retweeted a video interview of a certain car self-media and Ideal MEGA designer Ben Baum on Weibo, and wrote that Ben’s interview was very good.
However, in the next five days, Li Xiang’s Weibo was quiet, which is a far cry from the title of “Weibo King.” During this time, there were constant doubts about Ideal MEGA and Ideal Car. On the one hand, Ideal MEGA has been reluctant to disclose its sales data, accompanied by rumors of a large number of cancellations. On the other hand, Ideal Car’s stock price plummeted, evaporating hundreds of billions in market value. As a result, there were voices saying “Ideal MEGA has encountered Waterloo” and “Ideal Car’s dark moment has come.” Is this really the case? Is Li Xiang’s Weibo stopping related to MEGA? Why is the sales data not disclosed? What is the actual sales volume of Ideal MEGA? On March 5th, the new energy vehicle forecasting system “Jianyue EV Forecast” released a sales forecast for Ideal MEGA, believing that Ideal MEGA will re-establish the D-level MPV market structure. Jianyue EV Forecast stated that after evaluating the competitiveness of Ideal MEGA, its outstanding positioning is space, followed by its low wind resistance, long endurance, and ultra-fast charging network, attempting to challenge the mobility limit of pure electric vehicles. The appearance is highly recognizable. However, the interior design basically continues the platform design of the L series. Although the texture has been improved, as an MPV product at this price point, it still lacks a sense of luxury. In terms of brand, Ideal has improved users’ confidence through sales performance, but whether it is enough to impress the target customer base at this price point remains to be seen. According to EV prediction, by Q3 of 2024, the top 5 in the D-class new energy MPV market are: Tengshi D9, Ideal MEGA, Xiaopeng X9, Jike 009, and Lantu Dreamer. However, this prediction may be premature. Recently, it was reported that Ideal MEGA had 3218 orders in 72 hours, but 10297 cancellations. In addition, a car blogger indicated that each store had 8-9 orders, and based on Ideal’s previous announcement of 351 MEGA retail centers, the order data can be estimated at 2800-3200 orders. After the launch of Ideal MEGA, it is likely that Xiaopeng X9, Tengshi D9, Wenjie M9, Lantu Dreamer, and Jike 009 will see significant returns. Tengshi D9 is said to be the biggest winner, with a doubling of in-store orders and a weekend increase of over 1700 orders. However, Ideal MEGA’s performance may not be good. On March 5th, Ideal Car released weekly sales figures, but did not mention MEGA’s order data. It is highly likely that Ideal MEGA’s performance is really not good. Ideal Car rarely publishes large order data. However, Ideal Car has not released many order data after the release of new products. After the Ideal L9 was launched in June 2022, Ideal announced that within 72 hours of its launch, over 30,000 pre-order customers had paid 5,000 yuan (700$).
On November 13, 2023, Ideal Car announced that its first all-electric MPV model, Ideal MEGA, will officially debut at the Guangzhou Auto Show on November 17 and open for reservations on the same day. On November 17, Ideal Car announced that MEGA had surpassed 10,000 reservations in just 1 hour and 41 minutes.
Apart from that, the author has not found any ideal car to announce new product order data. If MEGA does not perform well, what is the reason? Being P-taunted, expensive, and anxious about battery life. At the release event of Ideal MEGA, Li Xiang made a bold statement that MEGA would be the next explosive product of Ideal Cars, confident that it will become the best-selling product of passenger cars priced above 50,000 yuan (6960$). Why is a product that gives Li Xiang confidence seen as a “Waterloo” by the outside world? Recently, a spoofed picture of Ideal MEGA appeared on the internet, with the words “laying” and “new energy funeral car” added to the body of Ideal MEGA. Subsequently, a car blogger exposed a complaint notice from Ideal Cars to a certain platform. The notice pointed out that netizens maliciously spoofed the Ideal MEGA model, implying that the new Ideal car is a burial item for the deceased, deliberately distorting the use of Ideal Cars, seriously infringing on the product image and brand reputation of Ideal Cars. The infringing picture and its content have constituted an insult, damaging the reputation of Ideal Cars. Ideal demanded that the platform delete the relevant content soon, and the links mentioned in the notice were no longer accessible. Could it be that the P-taunting this time led to the poor performance of Ideal MEGA? Will the P-taunter be held responsible? According to TSN reports, Zhao Liangshan, a senior partner at Shaanxi Hengda Law Firm and a well-known public interest lawyer, believes that in this case, the perpetrator manipulated the promotional image of the brand’s product and used insulting or suggestive images to make the public mistakenly believe that the Ideal MEGA is a funeral vehicle, thereby reducing the social influence and commercial value of the Ideal car brand. This behavior violates the reputation of Ideal car. Lawyer Fu Jian, director of Henan Zejin Law Firm, pointed out that the manipulation of promotional images, especially for commercial brand products, often involves infringement of intellectual property rights and requires corresponding legal responsibilities. Promotional images of brand products are usually protected by copyright law. Unauthorized modification and dissemination of these images by manipulators may constitute infringement of the original work’s copyright. From the statements of several lawyers, they mentioned reputation and copyright. Damage to reputation may indeed reduce the social influence and commercial value of the Ideal car brand, which could have some impact on sales. However, attributing all the blame to image manipulation is also somewhat exaggerated. Many voices believe that the Ideal MEGA’s price of 559,800 yuan (77900$) is a bit high. Some netizens believe that this car is quite good except for the price.
Some netizens believe that the main reason for the cancellation of Ideal MEGA is the price of nearly 560,000 yuan (77930$), plus various fees such as insurance, totaling nearly 600,000 yuan (83490$).
Some netizens believe that in the past year, the price cuts in the Chinese car market have been too severe, with various drastic price reductions, making it difficult for users to accept prices without surprises. Now, if a manufacturer launches a new car without a drastic price reduction, it won’t sell.
Some netizens believe that MPV is a tool for taking many people to farther places, but pure electric vehicles are a big obstacle. They cannot accept buying a car that can only travel within a range of 300 kilometers.
Ideal car stock price plunges With various “unideal” voices of Ideal MEGA, the market value of Ideal car has evaporated by hundreds of billions. In terms of stocks, Ideal car’s US and Hong Kong stock prices both plunged. On March 1, Ideal MEGA announced that night, Ideal car’s US stock closed down 5.10% to $43.54 per share.
On March 4th, the stock price of Li Auto in the US once again plummeted. As of the close of March 6th, the stock price of Li Auto in the US was reported at $37.87 per share. Li Auto’s Hong Kong stock was also not spared. On March 4th, the stock price of Li Auto in Hong Kong fell by 10.71%, closing at 160 Hong Kong dollars per share; on March 5th, Li Auto’s US stock fell again, dropping by over 13%. On March 4th, the stock price of Li Auto in Hong Kong fell by 10.71%; on March 5th, at the opening of the Hong Kong stock market, Li Auto fell by 8.06%, and by the close of the 5th, Li Auto’s Hong Kong stock price fell by another 5%, reporting at 152 Hong Kong dollars per share, with a total market value of 302.8 billion Hong Kong dollars.
As of today’s closing, Ideal car Hong Kong stock price is 144.20 Hong Kong dollars per share, with a total market value of 287.2 billion Hong Kong dollars. Annual profit exceeds 10 billion, cash reserves exceed 100 billion, not enough to reach a “dark moment.” Even if the Ideal MEGA market performs poorly and the Ideal car stock price plunges, this is not enough to push Ideal car into a “dark moment.” A poorly performing product is not enough to make Ideal car collapse. On February 26, Ideal car announced its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results for 2023. The financial report shows that in 2023, Ideal car achieved a revenue of 123.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 173.5%, becoming the first new force car company in China with an annual revenue of over 100 billion yuan. Net profit in 2023 was 11.81 billion yuan, achieving overall profitability since delivery. As of the end of 2023, Ideal car’s cash reserves reached 103.67 billion yuan. On March 5, NIO also released its fourth-quarter and full-year performance report for 2023. The financial report shows that in 2023, NIO’s total revenue for the full year was 55.6179 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, with a full-year net loss of 20.72 billion yuan, an increase of 43.5% from the previous year’s loss. Thanks to the two rounds of strategic investment totaling 3.3 billion U.S. dollars by the Abu Dhabi investment institution CYVN in the second half of last year, NIO’s cash reserves had soared to 57.3 billion yuan at the end of 2023, an increase of 12.1 billion yuan from the previous quarter. However, the more than 50 billion yuan looks like a lot, but it is actually very tight. In 2023, NIO’s sales costs were 52.5661 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%; research and development expenses were 13.4314 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%. Meanwhile, Xiaopeng fell slightly short in cash reserves. According to Xiaopeng’s Q3 2023 financial report, revenue was 8.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 68.5%. Cash reserves at the same time were 36.48 billion yuan, an 8% increase compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 2.74 billion yuan year-on-year. Comparing the cash reserves of the three new forces, it is obvious that Ideal Auto is more financially robust. After all, with a cash balance of hundreds of billions, it’s not so easy to have a “dark moment.” Did Li Xiang stop updating Weibo before? Was there anything going on with Ideal Auto at the time? Is Li Xiang’s Weibo stoppage related to MEGA’s poor performance this time? Li Xiang’s Weibo has been open to the public for half a year. The author reviewed Li Xiang’s Weibo for the past six months and found that Li Xiang would occasionally stop updating. What was going on with Ideal Auto at the time of Li Xiang’s previous stoppages? Considering that Li Xiang is usually busy at work and may occasionally want to “steal half a day of leisure,” those stoppages of one or two days don’t count. On September 19, 2023, Li Xiang interacted with several car bloggers and then stopped updating.
On September 24th, Li Xiang announced that a strategic meeting will be held next week to review and discuss three major issues from a 2018 exchange, looking ahead to the next five years.
During the four days of hiatus, Li Xiang may have been preparing materials for the strategic meeting. However, he stopped updating for a few more days afterwards. On October 6th, Li Xiang retweeted a video about the Ideal L9 from a blogger and commented “It’s good-looking, really good-looking”.
During this period, there was a minor incident with the Ideal car. On the evening of September 21, a woman drove the Ideal L7 into an underground parking garage and used the smart parking function. During the reverse process, the front right side of the car scraped against a partially open fire door. The force caused the fire door to instantly rebound and close. Some of the car’s paint was scratched. However, this is not a big deal and should not be enough to stop Li Xiang from updating his Weibo. On October 8, Li Xiang retweeted a Weibo post from Ideal Car and said, “Breaking through 40,000 deliveries per month in the fourth quarter, moving up to the next level!”
After a week of hiatus, Li Xiang resumed updating on October 14th by reposting a video about the Ideal L9.
During this period, several related companies of Ideal Auto, including Beijing Chehe Information Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing Rockville Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing Chehe Automobile Technology Co., Ltd., and Beijing Chezhibei Technology Co., Ltd., underwent changes in their business registration. Li Xiang stepped down as the legal representative and manager, both of whom were succeeded by Feng Weili. In response, Ideal Auto stated, “This is a common change in the company’s business registration information and does not represent a change in the company’s management.” On October 21st, Li Xiang reposted a Weibo post from Ben Baum, the head of MEGA exterior design, and then stopped posting for 10 days.
During the period, Ideal Car responded to a traffic accident. On the afternoon of October 27th, Ideal Car’s official Weibo account released a “Hancheng Expressway Accident Statement,” stating that at 23:59 on the night of July 27, 2023, a serious traffic accident occurred on the Weizhuang Expressway in Hancheng, Shaanxi Province involving an Ideal L9 vehicle. Ideal Car stated that since the accident occurred, they have not responded publicly due to it being a clearly one-sided accident. On November 9th, Li Xiang expressed some views on extended range vehicles, and 6 days later posted “If the weekly sales rankings are not released, the delivery volume must have fallen behind.”
However, Li Xiang quickly reposted the ideal car’s weekly sales volume and stated that the sales volume of the three models L7/L8/L9 of the ideal car had almost reached that of Mercedes-Benz and Audi in that week.
It seems that Li Xiang’s previous complaint about not releasing the weekly sales volume on Weibo was more like a teaser, deliberately warming up. On December 13, Li Xiang talked about the three major core risks of Ideal Auto and the internal standards for judging right and wrong. After that, it stopped updating for more than half a month.
On December 30th, Li Xiang resumed updating, reposted a Weibo related to Ideal Auto, and thanked the users.
During this time, another traffic accident occurred involving Ideal Cars, resulting in casualties.
On New Year’s Day this year, Ideals reposted a Weibo about delivery volume from Ideal Cars and thanked users and partners.
After a month of inactivity, Li Xiang resumed updating his Weibo on January 26th, sharing multiple posts from a car blogger about the Ideal car.
Before, Ideal Motors has always been a player in the extended-range vehicle market, this time they are doing pure electric, but they unexpectedly hit a wall right from the start. But Ideal Motors is not so easily defeated. What response will Li Xiang make when he resumes updating his Weibo?