On November 26, Gaishi Auto learned from a recent Goldman Sachs report that electric vehicle battery costs will drop nearly 50% by 2026. The average price will decrease from $149 per kilowatt-hour in 2023 to about $80 per kilowatt-hour in 2026. What does this mean for the battery cost issue today? As the penetration rate of new energy electric vehicles exceeds 50% multiple times in a month, the battery cost issue shifts from vehicle production to consumer use. Battery replacement costs will soon decline significantly. Charging an electric vehicle is cheaper than fueling a gas car. However, replacing a battery is much more expensive than replacing an engine. Analysis shows that for a $10,000 gas car, the engine accounts for about 10% to 20% of the cost. Replacing a new engine costs between $1,000 and $2,000. J.D. Power data indicates that replacing a basic four-cylinder engine starts at $4,000, with high-performance engines often exceeding $10,000. Recurrent, a battery startup, found that battery repair prices currently start at $5,000, while replacing the entire battery pack costs around $16,000. It’s important to note that replacing the battery in new energy electric vehicles typically involves replacing the entire battery pack, not just the cells. Currently, high battery replacement costs remain a challenge for increasing the penetration rate of new energy electric vehicles.
Goldman Sachs predicts that battery pack prices will drop to $64 per kWh by 2030. RMI estimates that battery cell prices will range from $32 to $54 per kWh in 2030, with battery pack prices around $45 to $65 per kWh. Industry experts say that if battery pack prices fall to $50 per kWh, the replacement cost for a 100 kWh battery pack will be between $4,500 and $5,000. A 75 kWh battery pack will cost about $3,375. This cost level matches the replacement costs for fuel engines. The battery health and data startup Recurrent even suggests that by 2030, replacing battery packs may cost less than replacing fuel engines. The consumer market will enter an “active choice” phase. What does the drop in battery replacement costs mean? In the global new energy electric vehicle industry, demand for electric vehicles is largely policy-driven. Reduced subsidies lower the cost of purchasing electric vehicles for consumers. As electric vehicle subsidy policies gradually decline or even end, the entire new energy electric vehicle industry chain will work together. This will reduce battery costs in vehicle production, lower consumer entry barriers, and strengthen profitability and cash flow.
The issue of battery costs remains prominent after the sale of electric vehicles. This affects consumer willingness to buy electric cars. Goldman Sachs notes that lower battery costs will attract more consumers to choose electric vehicles. When electric car prices match or drop below those of gasoline cars, consumer interest will rise significantly. Price-sensitive consumers will find electric cars more appealing. Additionally, as battery costs decrease, manufacturers can invest more in research and design. This will enhance vehicle performance, safety, and comfort, boosting electric cars’ competitiveness. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2026, the total cost of owning an electric vehicle will equal that of a gasoline car, even without subsidies. This shift may spark widespread consumer interest, leading more drivers to choose electric cars.